Sunday, October 30, 2016

US: New World With Cities on the Hill

Fool Me Once Jacobin ... US Election 2016 a week or so  to go so is it time for a quote that speaks in every political culture ...

In Defense of Politics, Now More Than Ever NYT

I enjoy democracy immensely. It is incomparably idiotic, and hence incomparably amusing. Does it exalt dunderheads, cowards, trimmers, frauds, cads? Then the pain of seeing them go up is balanced and obliterated by the joy of seeing them come down. Is it inordinately wasteful, extravagant, dishonest? Then so is every other form of government: all alike are enemies to laborious and virtuous men. Is rascality at the very heart of it? Well, we have borne that rascality since 1776, and continue to survive. In the long run, it may turn out that rascality is necessary to human government, and even to civilization itself – that civilization, at bottom, is nothing but a colossal swindle. I do not know: I report only that when the suckers are running well the spectacle is infinitely exhilarating. But I am, it may be, a somewhat malicious man: my sympathies, when it comes to suckers, tend to be coy. What I can’t make out is how any man can believe in democracy who feels for and with them, and is pained when they are debauched and made a show of.  

“We have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860,” Lichtman said...

“The U.S. Census Bureau released today selected characteristics of the citizen voting-age population from the 2015 American Community Survey for all U.S. states and congressional districts. These characteristics include selected age groups, sex, race, Hispanic origin, educational attainment, poverty status and household income.”

If you aren't familiar with his somewhat unique prediction system, here are the basics: The keys to the White House, he says, are a set of 13 true/false statements. If six of them are 
false, the incumbent party loses the presidency. His system has correctly predicted the 
winner of the popular vote in every U.S. presidential election since 1984   Our first interview went into the keys more in-depth, and in September he said the keys were settled enough to make an official prediction of a Democratic loss and a Trump win.  It's Morning In America:  Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win Professor of Prediction 30 Years: 1984 - 2016

We've still got about a week and a half left before Election Day, but artificial intelligence has spoken. MogIA, which analyzes data from Google, Twitter, and Facebook, predicts that Donald Trump will win when votes are cast on November 8.  According to CNBC, MogIA accurately predicted the previous three presidential elections, and found that Trump has more public engagement — a number gathered by looking at Facebook Live and Twitter — than Obama did in 2008. This is concerning, yes, but it's hard not to doubt the AI's finding.

Billionaire businessman and NBA owner Mark Cuban, for one, thinks the stock market will crash if Trump is elected, while renowned bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine thinks a potential Trump victory could threaten the global economy—even though he believes Trump will win.

Via BC: Puritan "city on a hill" beckoned on the horizon of the New World, religious faith and belief have forged America's ideals, molded its identity and shaped its sense of mission at home and abroad. God in America and the New World

Realities of Politics during elections in 1984 ... 

Election Ad by Republican Ronald Reagan

CODA: CRS Reports & Analysis Legal Sidebar – Partisan Political Activities and Federal Workers: Questions in the 2016 Election, 10/20/16
“As Election Day nears, interest in the Hatch Act’s regulation of government employees’ political activities peaks, with a number of issues raising congressional interest. Are federal officials permitted to appear with candidates for partisan political election at public events? Can federal entities endorse a candidate for partisan political election? The following Q&A addresses the issues implicated by these questions…”

How Inequality Found a Political Voice Project Syndicate