Friday, March 20, 2026

A $500,000 mortgage at 55: Millennials face grim retirement

The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money.



Unborn Trump defends Iran strike secrecy with Pearl Harbour joke 

Pearl Harbor attack: December 7, 1941

Trump’s birthdate: June 14, 1946

So he's admitting Iran was an unprovoked attack aimed at controlling energy. As was Pearl Harbour.


“Bluesky is like twitter but without nazis”


I love this planet & stars chart from XKCDbecause it’s technically correct but also completely useless.





For Grace Terdich, 39, the milestone of finally buying a home came with a sobering realisation: she’ll likely be 65 at the earliest when she makes her last repayment.

“It’s obscene,” she says. “I’ve worked since I was 18, I’ve been a teacher for 15 years. It shouldn’t be this hard.”

The prospect of entering retirement with a mortgage is quickly becoming a glaring reality for more Australians. The odds of a median, near-retiree household still having a mortgage balanceare now roughly 50-50, according to analysis by financial services consulting firm Credere Consulting.

The Melbourne Institute’s latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey shows the proportion of retirees who own their homes outright dropped from 75 per cent to 66 per cent in the decade to 2023, and the share of those with a mortgage increased from 13 per cent to 17 per cent.

And things are getting worse, not better. More than a third (36 per cent) of Millennials expect to carry a mortgage into retirement, according to a survey of 1800 Australians published late last year by Vanguard. A quarter of those Millennials, currently aged between 30 and 45, plan to use superannuation to clear the debt once they have access to the money.

“If Australians are expected to retire in the traditional retirement years, how are they supposed to manage ongoing mortgage repayments if they have relatively modest super balances? It just becomes a very tough equation,” Vanguard Australia managing director Daniel Shrimski says.

Bella and John Maxwell, co-founders of The Mortgage Coach, work with first home buyers to help them structure their home loans. They say that on a variable interest rate of 6.19 per cent, a dual-income couple with an $800,000 mortgage taken out at age 38 would still owe approximately $500,000 by age 55.

“For decades, Aussies believed that if you worked hard, you made your repayments, the mortgage would naturally disappear before retirement,” Bella says. “That’s the story that we’ve been told. What’s changed is that the loans are much larger. Now people are entering the market later, and the mass of modern mortgages means progress can be a lot slower than what people realise.”

The concern is that Australia is edging toward intergenerational mortgage debt. That is, people retiring with outstanding mortgages and their children inheriting property that still carries a loan.

First home buyers are also entering the market years later than their parents did. In the past five years, the average first home buyer age has increased to 34, according to Westpac, while some broker networks put the average first home buyer age at 37. Roughly one fifth of Westpac’s first home buyer lending the past 12 months has been to people aged over 40.

Terdich’s own parents, in large thanks to her mother’s line of work in finance, were able to buy a home that, even then, was considered a bargain. And they were able to pay the mortgage off in less than a decade.

“They were able to secure a much lower [rate] loan compared to everyone else,” she says. “Mum said her deposit was $3000. I was like, ‘Oh, OK, so you just kind of picked it up for a six-pack.’”

Terdich has been able to lean on her parents to help save for the deposit for the townhouse that she and her partner bought in Pakenham, Victoria in 2022 when she was 35. She may receive more help to pay off all or some of the mortgage once they die.

Grace Terdich will have around $270,000 left on her mortgage at age 55. Louis Trerise 

“It’s literally taking, to support Millennials buying houses, people dying,” Terdich says. “Which is a dark thing to look at, but realistically, [my parents] also think about how [the house] is going to benefit me, which is really messed up.”

Watson Wealth managing partner Elliot Watson has seen clients who are not only buying property later, but who are now concerned about working well into their 60s, and delaying other milestones such as starting a family.

“Every child costs money, and that reduces your ability to borrow and service a loan,” he says. “So you get stuck in a rock and a hard place between starting your family and wanting a home for the family.”

Active versus passive participation

John Maxwell says that an unintentional setback for borrowers can be refinancing too frequently, which can “reset the clock” on the loan term.

“In a standard mortgage, it can take up to 21 years before half of each repayment is actually reducing the principal. So when borrowers refinance in the first five years and reset the loan back to 30 years, they may have barely touched the balance.”

The key strategy to reduce your mortgage faster is to make repayments that are greater than the minimum amount, resulting in less interest paid. “The challenge that we’re seeing in our day to day is that most households are juggling work, raising kids, managing rising costs, so those extra payments don’t always happen or ever happen,” Bella Maxwell says.

By actively engaging with the mortgage, borrowers can begin to develop a sense as to what freeing up some of their cash flow can allow for, and the difference that it can make. As AFR Weekend previously reported, on an $800,000 loan with a 30-year term at 5.5 per cent, increasing monthly repayments from $4542 to $5000 would shave almost six years off the mortgage, and save almost $200,000 in interest.

Watson says that accessing superannuation to reduce the mortgage can be reasonable if there’s $100,000 to $200,000 left on the loan. There’s also the option to downsize when the time is right.

But he says that the impact of even modest top-ups each month can play a big part in lowering the burden before it gets to that point.

A $500,000 mortgage at 55: Millennials face grim retirement

Rising property prices, later market entry, and frequent refinancing now extend loan terms well past borrowers reaching their 60s


“It’s very important to know where your money goes,” Watson says. “Understand the impact an extra $100 a week in repayments can make over a year, over five years, over 10 years. That will make a substantial difference.”

IRS releases list of “dirty dozen” top tax frauds

 President Trump signs new Executive Order on cybercrime; orders DOJ to make prosecutions a priority

Google notifies 2.1 billion people to immediately change their passwords and set up multifactor authentication after surge in hacked email addresses used to steal money
 

Fraud Studies: Here are links to the studies I’ve written for the Better Business Bureau: puppy fraudromance fraud; BEC fraudsweepstakes/lottery fraud,  tech support fraudromance fraud money mulescrooked movers, government impostersonline vehicle sale scamsrental fraud, gift cards,  free trial offer frauds,  job scams,  online shopping fraud,  fake check fraud and crypto scams
 
Fraud News Around the worldHumorFTC and CFPBArtificial Intelligence and deep fake fraudBenefit TheftScam CompoundsIRS and tax fraudBitcoin and Crypto FraudRansomware and data breachesATM Skimming                                                       Jamaica and Lottery FraudRomance Fraud and Sextortion 

100 Best Economics Blogs to Follow in 2026

 

Miloš Forman

“The cornerstone of democracy is free press – that's the cornerstone. I'm convinced if the press ... it was not possible, of course, but if the free press existed through this century, there wouldn't be Hitler there wouldn't be Stalin, there wouldn't be all this incredible price people have to pay for their freedom.”

 

Miloš Forman, film director and screenwriter


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From Vienna’s rooftops, the Kremlin is listening in Russia has increased satellite dish activity on buildings it owns in Austrian capital


“The US is hurtling towards autocracy at a faster rate than Hungary and Turkey”. The Varieties of Democracy Institute: “Our data on the USA goes back to 1789. What we’re seeing now is the most severe magnitude of democratic backsliding ever…”


Dear allies of America, please don’t confuse our president with us Robert Reich

 We are trying our best to resist him, contain  him and remove him from office as quickly as we possibly can. Thank you for your patience


Jeffrey Epstein’s elite relationships visualised: the prince, the sultan and the politicians

Guardian analysis of more than a million emails reveals financier’s deep and longstanding ties with the wealthy and powerful


International law is in retreat. We cannot let it die Even defenders of the rules are speaking of them in the past tense. But they remain indispensable, argues historian Margaret MacMillan


100 Best Economics Blogs to Follow in 2026FeedSpot. Includes Naked Capitalism. A special shout out to the esteemed commentariat for making this site such a valuable resource!



Are the small tax havens really all that safe?

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, excerpt:

If you are a Dubai resident, the chance that you will die in this conflict is very small. But you no longer can treat safety as something you do not have to think about. And you may face some uncertainty about when and how you can leave the country, a question that formerly was never in doubt. So two major advantages have vanished, even if the current conflict is settled soon. Another problem is that a substantial part of your supply of desalinated fresh water can be taken out by a well-placed missile.

More generally, the war underlines how tenuous the position of a place like Dubai is in the geopolitical order. I have enjoyed my three trips to Dubai, but I never felt entirely safe there on anything beyond a day-to-day basis. I always knew the place relied on protection from the United States and a certain degree of forbearance from its larger neighbors, including Saudi Arabia. Both Dubai and its larger encompassing unit, the United Arab Emirates, are extremely small.

And:

In most daily life, the small tax havens will feel safer than Cape Town. In the longer run, I am not entirely sure. My longer-run plans might be more robust in Cape Town. Or in Brazil. Or in Mexico. Those are all fairly dangerous places that nonetheless seem to have considerable macro stability in the longer run. South Africa has a pre-1930 history of taking in persecuted Jews from Europe and giving them an environment where they can thrive. Even the coming and going of apartheid, in 1948 and 1994, did not change South Africa’s high degree of security from foreign threats.

Dare I suggest that these larger places are more fun and also have more soul?

Worth a ponder.

I would much rather be exiled to Cape Town than to Dubai, all things considered, even assuming away the current conflict in the Middle East.


Davids Clune and Blunt:

Les Jeckeln born in 1926 - A transcript of an oral history interview with him is available through the NSW Parliament


Archive directory unlocks secrets of world’s knowledge repositories

“For the first time, journalists and researchers have a searchable directory of over 1,500 of the world’s knowledge repositories. The new publication is from Newsjunkie.net, the data-journalism resource known for its “Who’s Behind the News” reporting. Guide to Public Archives II, a fully revised and expanded directory of the world’s artifact and document repositories, is designed to help journalists and scholars quickly and easily locate essential research materials. 

The updated guide now includes a full representation of essential archives from major institutions such as the Library of Congress and the Vatican Apostolic Archive to regional and specialized collections devoted to particular communities, disciplines, and eras, such as the Timorese Resistance Archive. Each entry has been significantly expanded, with richer descriptions, improved structure, and more detailed information on collections, access policies, and contact points. 

The Guide to Public Archives II has never been more necessary. It arrives at a moment of heightened urgency around the preservation of public records. As federal agencies remove datasets, government websites are compromised by misinformation, and historical records whitewashed, archivists, researchers, and journalists need a destination untarnished by ideology. The Guide to Public Archives II is a permanent, free reference to the world’s institutions that hold the record of human activity not altered by prejudice or partisanship…

The move that would give NSW an extra $3.2b a year

As tonnes of illegal tobacco sneak in past our borders, we risk missing a threat that could cost us billions


NSW Health Minister Ryan Park has broadsided the Albanese government for its inaction over illicit tobacco and blamed the federal excise for distorting the market.


As a smoker Mike Egan would probably try to bring some common sense about the cost of cigarettes. If not Mike, Late Johno Johnson certainly would make few waves. The former Treasurer Mike Egan was also a real fighter when it came to the Commonwealth Grants Commission biases 


'GST is busted': call for fairer slices of revenue pie


NSW emerges as main loser from GST carve-up as WA gets extra $5.5bn


The move that would give NSW an extra $3.2b a year


The NSW government has staked its claim to an extra $3.2 billion in GST revenue with a plan to rewrite how the national revenue haul is divided between the states to make it based on population size.

After a horror GST carve-up result for NSW, Australia’s most populous state has asked for a per person distribution and made a direct attack on the sweetheart deal with Western Australiathat is on track to drain more than $60 billion from Commonwealth coffers over a decade.

NSW wants the GST carve-up to be determined on a per person basis. Fiona Bianchinotti

The distribution system proposed by NSW in a submission to the Productivity Commission review of the GST would net the state an extra $3.2 billion each year.

The submission suggested that if consensus on its proposal is lacking, then the current GST floor of 75¢ in the dollar should be lowered to 50¢, another move that could disadvantage Western Australia.

The Commonwealth Grants Commission announced on March 13 that NSW would receive just 82¢ for every dollar notionally paid by its citizens in GST, meaning it would receive $1.4 billion less than Victoria despite having 1.5 million more people.

Victoria will receive $1.06 for every $1 of GST estimated to be paid in the state based on its population, down from $1.07 last year.

NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the current system is “busted” and that since he started campaigning for GST reform, “every state and territory except Western Australia has slammed this broken system”.

“NSW carries the federation all by itself. Other rich and wealthy states aren’t doing their bit to help smaller states and territories like the ACT, Tasmania and the Northern Territory,” he said.

“Even worse, NSW taxpayers have seen more of their money put to work fixing the budgets of Western Australia and Victoria, than their own.

“The whole of the federation would be better off if we allocated the GST by population share, with the federal government using their balance sheet to prop up the smaller jurisdictions.”


The South Australian government submitted that only Western Australia was better off from the 2018 reforms, reaping an extra $17 billion in GST over its first four years of operation, or $6000 per resident of the state.

“Conversely, all other states are collectively over $14 billion worse off on an underlying basis (that is, before the Commonwealth no worse off guarantee).”

In its submission, the Cook Labor government in Western Australia argued to preserve the 2018 reforms which put in place the 75¢ GST floor. Even after the 2018 reforms, it said Western Australia paid “more than its fair share to the Australian federation, the national economy, and the Commonwealth Budget”.

“Relative to our population share, Western Australia still provides a GST subsidy to the other states and territories of around $2.5 billion per year – the largest per capita GST subsidy of any state.”