~ Overhead during election 2016 campaign
1998 – Beazley got 52% of the vote but not where it counted ... OddsCzecher - Betting ...
The behavior of betting markets is as if two horses had run neck and neck in a dozen minor races, but one was still the overwhelming favorite for the big done. To spell this out, the polls have been virtually level pegging for many weeks, but the betting markets have barely moved. On past history, the two will converge by election day. If, as I expect, that means the betting odds will move towards the poll, this campaign will count as a major piece of evidence against the idea that markets are good aggregators of knowledge. And, of course, the converse is true ...
John Quiggin on Labor and the Greens ...
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means”
Is John the Only Person?
The LNP are now at $1.20, Labor at $4.50. The LNP are an Odds On or unbackable favourite. This election, for Labor, looks like 1980. Nice try, good campaign, but no cigar.
Halfway horse race commentary ....
Opinion Piece Labor v Liberal
Coming Soon After the Elections - Cream of Antipodean Investigative Journalism MichaelWest.com.au
New figures show the state government spends $150 million a year on consultants, or more than the budget for many government departments, leading to allegations its reliance on external advice is "privatisation by stealth".
$3 Million a week ... 150 million consulting bill gets results state government says
ParaKeelia Disclosure failure
Is the Election ‘Rigged’? Emily Bazelon, NYT. This has been a discouraging day, so I thought I’d pick up a paper version of the Sunday Times and read it to relax.
"And in the absence of candidates who tell us the truth, we need to pick the one who will tell the smallest, least dangerous lies. That, sadly, is Decision 2016." — Carl Hiaasen, Miami Herald
If elections are about offering a direct choice, shouldn’t it be informed? Australia’s policy strip-tease is blamed on tactical need. Then why can UK parties release a complete policy document so much earlier? The electoral drip-feed: why policies can and should come earlier
Labor's candidate for the New South Wales south western seat of Farrer has resigned following claims he is linked to the Islamic extremist group Hizb ut-Tahrir. Christian Kunde says his friendship with Uthman Badar, the controversial spokesman for Hizb ut-Tahrir, is being used to misrepresent him.
"In 'Louis D. Brandeis: American Prophet,' Moral Vision and a True Believer's Zeal." In today's edition of The New York Times, Adam Cohen has this review of Jeffrey Rosen's new book, "Louis D. Brandeis: American Prophet."
"The Problem With Congress Might Not Be Fixable": Law professor Cass R. Sunstein has this essay online today at Bloomberg View
How Should You Vote on 2 July: Guide to Political Biases
I have been thinking quite a bit about blogging in the last few days. One reason will become apparent this week, but it’s a bit prosaic compared the more existential issue that has been troubling me the most. That is whether blogging in the way that I do it is something that will be possible in the future.
It is more than a decade ago now that John Christensen of the Tax Justice Network and I identified fascism as the biggest potential threat we faced. I wish that prospect did not seem more likely now than it did then, but I have to admit that it does. When Hungary and Poland are both cracking down on free speech and removing the right of their elected oppositions whilst Turkey is actively suppressing any potential criticism of its President you realise that there is something deeply pernicious going on. And these things have a habit of spreading. The future of blogging
The Death Of The “Most Generous Nation On Earth.” Charity has limits, and begins at home
In Bashman news from China: The South China Morning Post reports that "Uniformed officers in China bash man on the street for failing to produce his ID."
UNEXPECTEDLY! US cities see unexplained rise in violent crimes this year
“We can never forget that as we speak, people in distant nations are risking their lives right now just for a chance to argue about the issues that matter, the chance to cast their ballots like we did today.”
His seven-year appointment begins on August 8. Linda Franklin, who stepped into the role on January 1 after the retirement of former commissioner Colin Barry, will continue to oversee the management of local government elections for those councils that will have them on September 10.
Schmidt, who has previously held several senior roles in the NSW public service, has been working for himself as a consultant since he left AUSTRAC in 2014. On LinkedIn, He lists his key skills as:
• anti-money laundering & counter-terrorism financing regulation and policy;
• machinery of government, including cabinet and parliamentary processes;
• organisational management and governance development and implementation;
• regulatory reform;
• developing and maintaining relations between Australian governments, government agencies and international bodies; and
• private sector and stakeholder engagement
PETER HITCHENS: The British people have risen at last – and we’re about to unleash chaos Daily Mail
US election is war of demographics FT
Why Political Parties Never Die Politico
When Advertising is Action: Clarence Thomas Channels Hannah Arendt and Friedrich von Hayek Corey Robin
Baird’s new electoral commissioner to help the premier ‘clean up politics’
Donald Trump tells people to ‘ask the gays’ about how great he is. ‘The gays’ respond—and it is EPIC Daily Kos
Barbarism, Civilization and Modern Politics: PTSD as a Political Football in a Hobbesian Age Counterpunch
Good Sam Tanenhaus review of various electoral books (NYT)