Chaplin was a champion. As was Vaclav Havel the master of the theatre of the absurd …As were Voltaire, Twain, Carlin, Pryor, and far, far too many to name throughout history show us, tyrants cannot abide being laughed at, and humor is ever their weakness…
Never fear a bully or a dictator. Create insightful jokes … Laugh at them …
Rude discovery: Trump confronts limits to his power in the complex US
Supreme power appealed to Donald Trump’s supporters, but the reality is America’s complex and at times cumbersome democracy just won’t allow for
His shock and awe campaign ranges from a crackdown on illegal immigration, a wipeout offederal diversity action, equity and inclusion policies and offices, energy emergency declarations that expedite development approvals, pardoning January 6 criminals and the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Trump’s often-repeated promise to introduce tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China on day one, however, did not eventuate. Some form of these will likely come soon, but the unexpected delay hints at obstacles. The president’s quip about being a dictator “only on day one” looks like coming true.
Supreme power appealed to Trump’s supporters, but the reality is America’s complex and at times cumbersome and litigious democracy just won’t allow for it.
Many of his executive orders face stiff opposition with more than half a dozen lawsuits already lodged to challenge them in courts around the country. And beyond executive orders, which really only give control over how the federal government is run, any new laws of the land such as tax cuts, border force funding and key appointments including cabinet secretaries, still require Congressional approval.
And while Trump’s Defence Secretary pick might yet squeak through – thanks in part to support from the unconventional, cargo pants-wearing Democrat senator John Fetterman – it’s worth noting three Republican senators oppose that appointment. A Republican House and Senate is not the same as a Trumpian Congress.
On his staff Trump has confounded critics by installing three powerful women ready to steer through his agenda: Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Attorney-General Pam Bondi and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. The trio’s empowerment is something Democrat billionaire Mark Cuban – who famously said Trump was never seen with intelligent women – would not have seen coming.
Wiles, known as the “ice maiden” is making history as the first female chief of staff to the president. She will decide who gets into the Oval Office to influence Trump. “I don’t welcome people who want to work solo or be a star,” she says. Wiles will bring order to a West Wing that was notoriously chaotic the last time around.
Bondi, who is expected to be confirmed next week, will be the attack dog defending the legal challenges to Trump’s executive orders and hounding out left-wing political apparatchiks of the Department of Justice.
And Leavitt, the youngest press secretary in history at 27, will push the public messaging. The firebrand Catholic tore strips off a “woke” Episcopal bishop this week for “weaponising” a pulpit sermon that she said, “spewed lies” designed to embarrass Trump.
Tariffs will likely be more moderate than market concerns and will not lead to significantly more hawkish monetary policy.
— Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief US economist
While Trump has much of his close personnel in place, Bill Kristol, the former Republican chief of staff to vice president Dan Quayle (Quayle attended Trump’s inauguration on Monday), is predictably pessimistic about Trump’s chance of success.
“Trump and his apparatchiks are overconfident and overreaching. All the talk of shock and awe?... Shock and awe doesn’t have a very good track record over the longer term. So don’t be shocked. Don’t be awed. Trumpism is formidable. But it’s beatable,” Kristol says.
The Trump agenda’s first stumble came this week with the loss of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who was meant to be heading up DOGE with billionaire Elon Musk and reporting directly to chief of staff Wiles.
The official line is Ramaswamy stepped away from DOGE because he’s decided to run for governor of Ohio. Unofficially, there’s speculation his days in the cabal of power were numbered after he entered the debate over H-1B visas. Ramaswamy dared to suggest some US companies hire foreign workers because America “venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long”.
The Wall Street Journal’s take was while there were “no hard feelings” between Musk and Ramaswamy, there was a significant difference of opinion. Musk wanted spending cuts, while Ramaswamy was focused on cutting regulation and that as the mandate narrowed and shifted, Ramaswamy opted to step away.
Musk, regarded as Trump’s “first buddy”, has been outspoken on who he thinks is best to work in Trump’s orbit – but he has had some significant losses. Musk backed businessman Howard Lutnick over Scott Bessent for the role of Treasury secretary, and wanted Senator Rick Scott over Senator John Thune for Senate majority leader. He got neither of them.
Thune won his vote and could still spell some trouble for Trump this year.
In 2022, Trump was so angry with Thune he asked South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, who is likely to be confirmed as his homeland security secretary next week, to launch a primary challenge against him (she declined). Trump and Thune have since patched things up, but there are still tensions.
Thune wants to preserve the Senate’s independence, according to Republican senators close to him, and has pushed back on Trump’s demand to put the Senate into extended recess if needed to allow him to make emergency presidential recess appointments.
White House staff secretary Will Scharf talks with President Donald Trump. AP
One Republican senator told US political website The Hill that both Trump and Thune recognise they need each other to be successful.
“It’s a mutual need society. They both need each other, and they’re both smart enough to recognise they need to push past disagreements ‘aside’,” the unnamed senator told The Hill.
Trump and Senate Republicans also don’t see eye-to-eye on some major issues, such as the best strategy for passing border-security funding and a major tax cut package.
These are hardly the problems of a dictator.
On Monday (Tuesday AEDT), Trump launched a sweeping illegal immigration crackdown, and tasked the US military with aiding border security, issuing a broad ban on asylum and taking steps to restrict citizenship for children born on US soil.
By Thursday, a federal judge had placed a temporary block on Trump’s order to end birthright citizenship.
Some immigration-related laws have already passed, such as the Laken Riley Act, which gives local law enforcement and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) more tools to fight illegal immigrants who commit crime in the United States.
That bill passed the House overwhelmingly with 48 Democrats joining every Republican in supporting the legislation. This week during a 33-hour period, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations arrested more than 460 illegal immigrants with criminal histories. Trump still wants more than 11 million illegal immigrants deported.
The architect of Trump’s hard-line immigration agenda, Stephen Miller, this week warned mayors and state government officials not to go soft with the tougher laws.
“If there are incidents that occur where a public official or an elected individual engages in violations of those criminal statutes, then I fully expect the Department of Justice will follow the letter of the law.”
Softening tone on tariffs
That fight still has a long way to play out. Where Trump is likely to have less trouble is in his innovative energy emergency declarations. Legal experts say challenging the declarations in court would probably be futile because courts rarely question the president’s judgment in using the National Emergencies Act.
Trump’s domestic agenda of immigration crackdowns, energy emergencies and Congressional-approved laws on tax cuts and budget reconciliation all have consequences for the rest of the world.
The White House is preparing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on February 1. But Trump’s notable softening in tone on tariffs and his more bullish assertions that the US Federal Reserve should have lower interest rates, have helped sharemarkets rise and the US dollar backtrack.
Citi’s chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst said the US dollar already started weakening after Trump did not immediately raise broad tariffs.
Trump has instructed his administration to investigate compliance with existing trade deals and suggested 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on China.
“We see this as more of a negotiating tool than a desire for structurally higher tariffs against these countries. Our view remains that tariffs will likely be more moderate than market concerns and will not lead to significantly more hawkish monetary policy,” Hollenhorst says.
The big banks don’t half mind Trump’s newish position on using tariffs as a trading tool for forcing other countries’ hands on national security issues.
JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon said during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week that, “National security trumps a little bit more inflation.”
“If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it,” Dimon said.
But little on tariffs now does not mean more on tariffs later.
Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin an ultimatum this week: make a deal over the Ukraine war or face trade action.
“If we don’t make a ‘deal’, and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries,” Trump insisted in a Truth Social post, before making similar threats to the EU if it didn’t start unwinding regulations.
Australia’s position
The threats for Australia have not registered yet but the punters expect it could be around taxation.
The Australian Financial Review reported on Thursday that almost 90,000 expats living in the US and thousands of Australian companies that operate there could have their tax rates doubled as part of Mr Trump’s “America first” trade policy unless the Albanese government junks its policy to impose a new levy on social media companies.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong gave little away this week after she was invited to and prominently positioned in the third row at Trump’s inauguration.
She refused to outline how the government was preparing for any changes that might come from the Trump administration on trade and taxation.
But after meeting with Trump’s new Secretary of State Marco Rubio, she reiterated her confidencethat the AUKUS military pact was safe. The pact is crucial for China deterrence and Wong indicated she thought Trump wasn’t about to play games on such an important deal that delivers nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.
Trump has discovered there is only so much being a dictator on day one can get you in America. But one thing he did get full control over was a steady stream soft drink to keep him charged during negotiations at the Resolute Desk.
A valet button was installed this week for the commander-in-chief to use, not for nuclear action, but prompt delivery of Diet Cokes.
For Churchill, watching on, it might have been the heavier option of cigars and cognac.
"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions." -Thomas Jefferson, letter to Francis Adrian Van der Kemp, 30 July, 1816
