Saturday, October 17, 2026

We are all Children of Coincidence

 Actions prove who someone is, words just prove who they pretend to be.


“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted”

-The maxim was coined by sociologist William Bruce Cameron in his 1963 book Informal Sociology: A Casual Introduction to Sociological Thinking


Scientists make stunning discovery that could help explain why life exists Science Daily 


We are all Children of Coincidence

Why are you reading this? Do you believe in chance, probability, conspiracy, serendipity or synchronicity? Theories on coincidence range from “Show me the numbers!” to blind faith in “God’s wink.” As the world gets smaller, the questions around coincidence are getter bigger. And there’s advantage in answering them. As Steve Jobs says “creativity is just connecting things.”  Here’s some current context:

1. The Butterfly Effect:  Can the beating of a butterfly’s wings in New York cause an earthquake in China? So say chaos theorists. Ashton Kutcher, star of the movie “the Butterfly Effect”, learnt the hard vertical way. Screw with the past small time, alter the present big time. Introduce your grandparents to technology, and you get the idea.

2. Shuffle:  In the iPod Shuffle, the shuffle option is top of the menu where it belongs. “Life is random,” says the serendipity-selling slogan. Or is it? Does the Shuffle “give chance a chance?” Is the buzz about it playing its favourites true? “Random is random” assure the iPod engineers – the algorithm works. But why do I hear Born to Run every day?

3. Smart cows:  Apart from being gay nymphomaniacs, British research now says cows bare grudges, nurture friendships, and are excited by solving intellectual challenges. So what’s happening down on the farm when we’re not watching? A rolling-eye conspiracy against humans or an emotional coincidence with them? And who is farming whom?

4. Right over Left:  Acting on Intuition is hot. Jobs reducible to rules or machines – from conveyancing and programming to TurboTax and accounting, are being off-shored. The premiums are in ideas, stories emotion – and love; in fine arts and film degrees, not MBAs. A sign in Einstein’s office read: “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.” Bring it on Albert!

5. Six degrees and falling:  The idea that we are each part of a synchronous design is heating up. Stanley Milgram’s 1967 “six degrees of separation” theory has spread through popular culture, from John Guare’s 1990 play and the Kevin Bacon game to Duncan Watts’ research and Gladwell’s Tipping Point. Now search engine technology is pumping gas into social network theory. “Smart tags” will create the semantic web.. A web not for browsing, but for answering questions in a digital flash.

6. Pattern Recognition:  Semantic webbing is part of a bigger pattern. William Gibson’s book about Cayce Pollard – with her pathological sensitivity to logos – had its finger on the random pulse. New security biometrics are part of the picture. So is “Biomimicry”, as championed by Janine Benyus, where nature’s ruthlessly-efficient designs are applied to solve human problems. Example? Studying a leaf to invent a better solar cell.

7. Blink:  Malcolm Gladwell is the rock star of post-modern analysis, and he’s got the hair to back it up. In his New York Times #1 bestseller, the little battler marries random instincts and pattern recognition, using style not ceremony. The connection between instinct and narrow slices of experience is on the money for smart decision-making. Emotion over information, with sanity checks as a fail-safe? Buy Blink now.

8. The Bio-economy:  If the 19th century was the age of chemistry, and the 20th of physics, the 21st is the age of biology. Hard, predictive science with linear growth is behind us. Ahead is soft science with non-predictive quantum outcomes. From hydrogen to computers, soft is the new order. Quizzed on why Apple is in vogue, Jobs made a cognitive leap: “Software is the key… In fact, software is the user experience.”

Now some coincidence at everyday level:

9.  Serendipity:  How many times have you thought of someone, and a second later the phone rings, and it’s them? More than you can shake a stick at.

10.  Scale:  In probability theory, the birthday problem is famous. You need to get together 367 people to ensure 2 of them share a birthday. But for a 50-50 chance of this happening, you only need 23 people gathered.

11.  Inverted History:  Lincoln made Congress in 1846, Kennedy in 1946. Lincoln made President in 1860. Kennedy in 1960. Both were shot on a Friday in the head. Before Lincoln was shot he was in Monroe, Maryland. Before Kennedy was shot he was into Marilyn Monroe. (Oops).

12.  Between ‘f’ and ‘h’:  What is it with “G” and the latest science geniuses and gurus? First James Gleick on the speed of modern life. Next Gibson’s Pattern Recognition. Now Gladwell’s Blink. Looking for the next bestseller? Look under G!!

13.  The other side:  My close friend John Kirwan scored the greatest solo try in rugby history against Italy in the 1987 World Cup. Now he coaches Italy’s national side.

What to say about coincidence? First, improbable events are a certainty on the numbers. Foresight with accuracy is rare, but remarkable coincidences in hindsight are a sure thing. Events with million-to-one odds occur 295 times a day in America. But is destiny just random chance? I say no (which screws the theory of quantum mechanics). Recent research on mind and heart agrees, showing we are  synaptically and emotionally primed to find coincidences (“the neurons that fire together wire together”), and quite possibly, human thought changes the future.

95 percent of human thought is not fully conscious. Conscious understanding was never a reliable guide, as Psychologist George Millar demonstrates with a conversation on a ship. Says one: “There sure is alot of water in the ocean.”  Says another: “Yea, and we’ve only seen the top of it.”

The thin-sliced sub-conscious, fed by emotional tributaries, is a better bet. Rigorous research now indicates the brain acts as an early warning system and the heart receives and responds to intuitive information. It turns out we can be aware of an event 5-7 seconds before it occurs. The bottom line is that when stuff has an underlying cause, we tend to notice it.

So maybe the metaphysicists are right. We are each a walking point of time, mysteriously interlocked, interconnected and synchronized to work together. Who can say for sure? What we can do is make coincidence work for not against us. As Heraclitus wrote: “the unseen design of things is more harmonious than the seen.” So here are some thin slices of synchronicity:

14.  Pursue the story:  Believe in the power of mystery. If we know everything, there is nothing left to discover. Assume: 5% you know, 15% you know you don’t know and 80% you don’t know you don’t know. Be open to coincidence. It will lead you to a life of fun and surprises.

15.  The fish tale:  Good coincidence, serendipity, is like fishing. To land a whopper you need a line in the water. For a beautiful life, expose yourself! Global interconnectedness is a huge opportunity. Proactively seed your presence in multiple spaces. Follow up on every coincidence. As Woody Hayes said, “luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity”.

16.  How we learn:  Malcolm Gladwell says you have to accept the risk of failure to hit a home run. Failure is the ultimate reality check! Be in over your head. Don’t be afraid to lose because then and only then will you know what you’re made of. Just remember, a genius is a person who makes the same mistake. Once.

17.  Links:  Don’t confuse coincidence with certainty. We are all connected. Confront bad coincidence. Where we are born in the world should not determine whether we live or die as a child. There are huge problems like AIDs and poverty to sort out. Africa needs to be solved not saved. As Rock legend Bono said last month: “Idealism detached from action is just a dream.”

18.  Sources:  Listen to collective intelligence, what James Surowiecki called the “Wisdom of Crowds.” It’s a fantastic way to cut through expert crap. A Google search is collective coincidence working together. Why are smart companies now asking consumers to design and create their products? So the market doesn’t dump their offering.

19.  Actions:  Make the small decisions with your head; the big ones with your heart. People who change the world sure do. For the New Year, online magazine Edge asked 120 luminaries “What do you believe is true even though you cannot prove it.” A fantastic question with incredible responses. I’m a radical optimist. I love radical optimism. The words that sum up my life? Nothing Is Impossible.

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Friday, October 16, 2026

Any Human Ever

"The only easy day was yesterday." 





Burying the Horrors of Epstein Island The Epstein Files by Julie K. Brown





Any Human Ever randomly picks an average person from some point in human history and tells you about what their life was like. Mine was a woman born in 1547: “Of all the sounds of her life, the loudest were thunder and the church bells.”

Bill McKibben: I’m Exhausted. You’re Demoralized. We Weren’t Built for a World Like This. The human nervous system wasn’t designed for the polycrisis. “Among all the other dangers these developments represent, they’re simply wearing us out.”

Unseen Places: Rediscovering the Art of Observation by Anna Kodé. Looking forward to this one…Kodé is one of my favorite journalists covering urban culture. “Observation…is not a passive act, but a powerful and radical way of connecting…”


Nearly 4M Records of Enslaved People in 20 Former British Colonies Now Searchable Online. “The Former British Colonies Enslavement Registers contains about 300,000 pages recording enslaved people across former British colonial dependencies…”




'An Interzone Between Prose and Poetry'

Among Clive James’ books, perhaps the least read is Gate of Lilacs (Picador, 2016), a book of poems mostly about Marcel Proust and James’ imminent death (he would die in 2019). The poet taught himself French by reading Proust and a dictionary across many decades. Proust and his masterwork were essential to my education as well. I first read the Scott-Moncrieff translation, Remembrance of Things Past, over the summer of 1971 while managing a miniature golf course – a silly setting Proust would have appreciated. Ten years later, when I was working as a newspaper reporter, I read Terence Kilmartin’s newly revised edition of In Search of Lost Time. While reading Proust I remember thinking all the rest of literature was somehow second-rate, even Shakespeare. That left me feeling rather guilty and somehow disloyal. In his postscript James writes: 

“Proust was a very clever man, and had nothing to do with his day except observe, study and write. His powers of observation were as acute as Dante’s, Shakespeare’s or Goethe’s, but we might say the same of Lucretius, or of Homer when he registered in a set of syllables the quivering of a bowstring: when Conrad said that the writer’s aim was ‘above all, to make you see’, he forgot to say that the ability to observe is the writer’s first qualification.”

 

That’s what I remember: Proust’s powers of concentration, the way he could observe a scene and analyze it for many pages without being tedious. James takes up one of his favorite themes: the relationship of prose to poetry:

 

“Perhaps it merely blurs categories to say that the expression of a thought in prose can have a poetry of its own, but in fact poets have always been attracted to the mere sound of phrases lying loose. Tell a poet that Kepler, with his newly improved refracting telescope, observed SN 1604 in Serpentarius and you might get no reaction. But tell the same poet that Kepler studied the geometry of lunar shadows and he might make a note, because the phrase sounds good. There is an interzone between prose and poetry: a porous border where the discursive expression of a thought is rhythmic or resonant enough to take off on its own and enter the area where words and phrases, seemingly in search of one another, combine into a meaning beyond analysis.”

 

The accompanying poems are not merely discursive. James often returns to his illness and mortality. In the section titled, after Prospero, “I’ll Drown My Books,” James writes:

 

“And soon

All that I love will leave me, as I go

First into silence, then the fire, and then

The harbour water, in which there will be

At last no room to breathe, no time to think:

No time to think even of you, Marcel.”

 

If you have ever contemplated reading Proust but have been daunted by its length or reputation, let me recommend Gate of Lilacs as an excellent orexigenic – an appetite stimulant. I’m taking a dose of it myself for a third reading.


 

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Inside McKinsey’s papal-like election for a new leader

Chris Bradley - McKinsey leader steps down from charity board days after controversial ‘glass cliff’ comments

 

Inside McKinsey’s papal-like election for a new leader

North America boss Eric Kutcher is the candidate to beat in the consultancy’s byzantine election, but his past performance as CFO turns some voters off.


At a 2024 gathering of senior McKinsey partners in Copenhagen, then chief financial officer Eric Kutcher put on a baseball catcher’s mask and invited hundreds of colleagues to hurl stress balls at him.
By his own admission Kutcher had “failed miserably” at explaining his actions during the post-COVID period of weak financial performance and divisive lay-offs. He hoped the stunt would ease tensions and act as a reset – both for the firm and himself.
“I think I went into that role as well liked as anyone and I came out of that role really in a bad spot. For the first time in my 28 years, I felt pretty unwelcomed,” he said this year on the How Leaders Lead podcast. But as the balls bounced at his feet, “everything started to heal itself again”.
That claim will be tested in the coming months in the byzantine election to determine McKinsey’s next leader.
Having switched in mid-2024 to heading the firm’s business in North America, where a much-improved financial performance has eclipsed some other regions, he is now the frontrunner to succeed Bob Sternfels as global managing partner, according to current and former McKinsey figures.
Yet the unhappy four-year tenure as CFO looms large in conversations among voters, the people said, as does the perception that Kutcher represents continuity with Sternfels’ approach to running McKinsey – centralised decision-making that has not been universally lauded by the firm’s fiercely independent-minded partners.
“Eric is the presumptive leading candidate. He is managing the largest region. Roughly half of McKinsey is North America. It would be hard for someone else to step forward from a region that is not growing as fast,” said one former executive familiar with the internal dynamics. “But it’s not like a presidential election where you have polling done.”

‘Not-Eric’ candidates

The closest election metaphor is not presidential but papal. McKinsey’s roughly 760 senior partners can select anyone from among their number when the voting begins in January. The top seven candidates will go forward to a second ballot that will whittle the field to three.
If Kutcher or a rival has not passed the 50 per cent threshold by that stage, the partnership will pick the winner in person, conclave-style, at their next meeting in Sydney in February. Some partners could support “not-Eric” candidates in early rounds to ensure a vigorous contest.
McKinsey’s previous two elections for managing partner were fractious. Kevin Sneader lost his re-election bid in 2021 after a scandal over the firm’s work for opioid manufacturers that cost it hundreds of millions of dollars in legal settlements. The 2024 race was also close, with several rounds of voting before Sternfels claimed victory.
“Is there campaigning? There’s certainly politicking,” said John Seaman, a business historian who has written about McKinsey.

“Often the process will start out with a favourite from a particular region but it’s not a popularity contest. Partners vote on substance, in response to the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the previous global managing partner and to express their hopes for where the firm will go from here.”
Election-weary partners agreed last year that managing partners should now serve four years, not three, with a two-year extension subject to an up-or-down confidence vote.

‘Project Magnolia’ lingers

Kutcher told the podcast host David Novak that he had not wanted to be CFO but took the job when offered it, “because I’ve always been a good soldier”.
The appointment in 2020 coincided with the pandemic and the ensuing consulting boom. Like other professional services firms, McKinsey hired thousands of new staff to keep up with demand, only to find itself bloated when activity reverted to normal.
Kutcher was an architect of “Project Magnolia”, which aimed to lay off more than 1400 back-office staff and prompted outrage in some quarters of the firm for the way it treated longtime employees and disrupted support for consultants. Even with the cuts, partner profits remained weak.
At the same time, the firm embarked on two ponderous reviews of partners’ remuneration – projects codenamed Oak and Acorn – to deal with the fact that clients were tying fees more closely to the results of McKinsey’s work, delaying performance-related payments and complicating cash flows.
“Eric had to institute a series of measures to make sure the books started to improve,” the former executive said.
As leader for North America, Kutcher is taking a gentler approach to remaking the back office, but adoption of AI means it could be no less dramatic over time.

The ratio of support staff to frontline consultants will drop, he told reporters last week. Hiring of executive assistants and “professional development” staff who organise which consultants are placed on which jobs will rise this year by “low single-digit” percentages and remain flat in other administrative roles, compared with 12 per cent growth for consultants.
McKinsey’s optimistic pitch to American business is that the firm now has the AI tools as well as the knowhow to help chief executives plot their companies’ transformations.

Close to Sternfels

Kutcher has arguably the fullest résumé of the plausible contenders for global managing partner – as well as running a major region and the stint in the finance role, he was previously head of a practice area, technology, media and telecoms.
Based in the same San Francisco office as Sternfels, the two formed a close working relationship. Partners took note when Sternfels gave Kutcher the North America job despite his rocky tenure as CFO.
Kutcher took a prominent role in celebrations for the firm’s 100th anniversary this year. Hundreds of retired partners descended in May on New York’s Lincoln Centre for several days of panel discussions involving current executives and guests including JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon, while their spouses went on trips to Central Park or city museums. Several of those in attendance said at the time that Kutcher looked every bit the heir apparent.
Other potential contenders include Tunde Olanrewaju, who was promoted last year from running McKinsey in the UK to leading the firm’s business Europe-wide, and Asutosh Padhi, Kutcher’s predecessor running North America.
People familiar with internal conversations said partners would also consider other members of the 17-strong global executive team, such as client capabilities head Becca Coggins or industry practices leader Alex Panas, and the 13-strong shareholders’ council that acts as McKinsey’s governing board, as well as other regional leaders.
“It’s papal – in that you cannot be seen to want the job,” said one senior partner. Kutcher declined to comment.
In his podcast appearance, Kutcher reflected on a period earlier in his career. “One of the things I often got criticised for is maybe having too much ambition,” he said, but added that it was always ambition for his team or for McKinsey as a whole.
The firm sometimes puts people in leadership roles before they are comfortable in their own skin, he added, but wisdom comes with age. “You have to have lived through failure.”
Financial Times


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The bad behavior of the richest: what I learned from wealth managers

"The truth doesn't drown in water and doesn't burn in fire."


 "Get comfortable being uncomfortable."


Things Really Are Getting Worse at IRS Can We Still Govern?


From GST to trusts, reform is almost impossible in this fraught political climate




The Godfather of St. Petersburg 

 1 season German Explores Vladimir Putin's rise to power

1 season German    🇩🇪 Explores Vladimir Putin's rise to power in St Petersburg, one of the most dangerous cities in the 1990s, and how his network has allowed him to stay in power for a quarter of a century.

Two part documentary series The Godfather of St. Petersburg screens on SBS2.

Putin, President of the Russian Federation, has been in power for a quarter of a century. But how did he get there? The Godfather of St. Petersburg tells the story of Putin’s rise in one of the world’s most dangerous cities of the 1990s. As deputy mayor and power broker, he became the second most powerful man in the city. In a time of brutal feuds between rival criminal gangs, he forged a network of intelligence and mafia connections: a foundation for Russia’s future power elite, which left a clear trail of corruption and violence on its way to the top.

The two-part series is based on exclusive access and sources, eyewitness accounts, and previously unseen film footage. It reveals how Vladimir Putin wove a dense web that was later able to permeate and control an entire state.

Episode One:
In the early 1990s, KGB agent Vladimir Putin returns to St. Petersburg. He quickly rises to become deputy mayor to Anatoly Sobchak – loyal, efficient, and ambitious. When the city’s food supply collapses, Putin presents a program: valuable raw materials will be bartered for food. But no food arrives; instead, the proceeds disappear. When Putin comes under investigation by a congressional investigation committee, everything is at stake for him.

Episode 2: The Godfather of St. Petersburg. Tsar Putin


The bad behavior of the richest: what I learned from wealth managers

This article is more than 7 years old

The habits of the wealthiest mirror the supposed ‘pathologies’ of the poor. But while those in poverty are called lazy, the rich are dubbed bon vivants


NYU Tax Law Review Symposium: Sharing the Wealth

The Tax Law Review has published a new issue (Vol. 78, No. 1 (Fall 2024)):

Read more

Exclusive: US considering using ‘mother of all bombs’ against Iran, sources say CNN


Trump cancels deposition in BBC case, lawyers say Politico

 

Kimberly Guilfoyle Resigns as U.S. Ambassador to Greece Greek Reporter

 

White House Scrambles over Questions on New Press Secretary’s Background WaPo


Mass protests in Europe: is a new anti-war movement emerging? Movisol.org 


EXCLUSIVE | Leaked emails reveal former German intelligence chief’s Mossad links The Cradle


Martin Armstrong: Forecasting European False Flag Operations to Start War with Russia Glenn Diesen


‘Unprecedented’ Cyberattack cripples supermarket fridges across Europe as hackers activate automatic defrosting  — delivery and store prices also impacted by incident Tom’s Hardware


England wasn’t the only country to have a “window tax” – it was a significant social, cultural, and architectural force in England, France, and Ireland during the 18th and 19th centuries. People refused to disclose how much money they made, considering it an invasion of privacy – so you would be charged based on how many windows your house had. In retaliation, people bricked up their windows, which you can still see today.

DAYLIGHT ROBBERY documents the bricked up windows of London, originating from the Georgian-era Window Tax. The works examine the role that light and air play for our wellbeing in the spaces we inhabit, something more important than ever after the year we’ve all experienced.

Found via This isn’t Happiness.

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Thursday, October 15, 2026

What are you watching

 


‘Some things are worth dying for’: Karl Bushby’s incredible 28-year walk home, through deserts, kidnappers and polar bears

The ex-soldier has marched 36,000 miles since he left Hull in 1998. He’s crossed the Americas, Asia and Europe, fallen in love, been held at gunpoint and been deported, in between nearly drowning, nearly dying of thirst and nearly being eaten. But that’s just the start of it …


Man accused of hiding 10 live birds in his ‘bulge’ at the airport


Something Old, Something New.

Something Old:

In this crazy VUCAA world I’ve been diving into drama – especially escapism, gritty, quirky, humorous, larger-than-life stuff.

IQ not tested.  EQ needed.

Starting with some old favourites:

  • Fauda – Series V.  High octane, gritty, post October 7th reality with some depth and intimacy for all sides of the conflict.  Three gripping characters – Doron, Gabi and Eli.  My favourite series – just ahead of 3 and 1 because of its slower, more emotionally complex pace.  (Netflix)
  • The Diplomat – Series 4.  Breaks on October 15th.  The delicate US/UK relationship, the threat of Russia and the escalating professional/personal relationships between the ‘core four’ – US President, Vice President, First Gentleman and Ambassador Kate Wyler heats up – and up and up.  Revisit the last two episodes of season 3 to brush up before October 15th.  (Netflix)
  • Another big personal favourite – Slow Horses – Series 6.  On Apple.  Beautifully shot, well staged, a clear, credible, well-told story, easy on the eye and predictably action packed.  8/10.
  • Mobland – Series II.  On Paramount+ / Prime.  The back story of Tom Hardy / Helen Mirren was all over the media.  And has been dampened down by Paramount with ‘on set tensions’ relieved – and Tom (Harry da Souza) having signed on for a season 3.  (So we also know he’ll survive season 2 – which is off to a super-fast, super-violent, super-surprising start in episodes 1 and 2.)  All a bit like the EPL and Man City – which I hope will end in a similar way – with City still in the EPL – winning Championships – in 2027/onwards.  And the EPL (just about) saving face.

And a reminder in case you missed them:

  • Professor T – Series 1 – 5 on Amazon Prime.  The English version with Ben Miller as the charismatic lead.
  • The Paris Murders – Series 1 – 7 (Profilage) or Profiling is a TFI production that ran for 10 seasons – 2009 – 2020, and seven series are currently available on Amazon Prime.  Criminal psychologists working alongside Paris Homocide.  With one stand-out star in particular – Odile Vuillemin who plays the eccentrically brilliant profiler Chloe in seasons 1 – 6.
  • The irrepressible Omar Sy returns as Lupin in Lupin Part 4 on October 23rd.  I’ve enjoyed the humour/cleverness of the show so far.  I’m hoping for more of the same.

Something New:

  • The Cage.  A BBC1 show – with my friend and huge talent Hilary Martin – a free Lancastrian spirit – executive producing.  Stars Sheridan Smith and tells the story of a Lancastrian/Liverpudlian thriller with real Northern humour.  A must watch.

And now for something completely different.

  • France 1504.  An assassin and his daughter.  “If you want a long and peaceful life, never have children” – the opening scene.  Nero The Assassin.  It’s irreverent, funny and action packed.  French drama in a golden period – action and thriller wise.  Not everyone’s cup of tea, but I’m enjoying it (in small doses, one episode at a time).
  • Sweet Pea.  New to me – but one season in (2024), with season 2 on its way early next year.  On Sky Atlantic.  Dark British humour at its best.  A Starz original.  Ella Purnell is impossible to forget – balancing timid naivete with chilling, unhinged rage.  Impactful to say the least.
  • Two other Amazon Prime series.  Reacher spin-off Neagley (I loved her in the books and Maria Sten brings her to life here).  And a great crime show Task (HBO) on Prime – with top tier performances by Mark Ruffalo as a troubled FBI agent and Tom Pelphrey as the bad guy.  A slow burn start, accelerating into a non-stop final episode.

That’s all Folks.


PS: 


Online ads weaponised to deliver ‘zero-click’ spyware, researchers say


‘Unprecedented’ Cyberattack cripples supermarket fridges across Europe as hackers activate automatic defrosting  — delivery and store prices also impacted by incident Tom’s Hardware

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