Thursday, June 19, 2025

Republicans Have a Revenue Problem - The wisdom of Nate Silver

“It isn’t always the fittest who survive, but the people who have the information, those who clock the exits. I could find in relentless occupation what I could never find in helplessness: a way through.”

~ Andrew O'Hagan

Governments don’t have a money problem—they have a “billionaires write the rules” problem. It’s like asking the fox to design the henhouse budget. And Germany? Still copying homework… badly.

Concrete consequences for GST crooks

Three individuals sentenced in June join the ranks of over 100 individuals sentenced to date under Operation Protego.

Tax parades custodial sentences for Operation Protego perpetrators

Convictions are finally coming for Australia’s biggest first-person tax con, with the ATO profiling GST fraud convictions.


AG Bondi and President Trump Violate Precepts of Criminal Justice that DOJ Tax Knows and Gets Right 

I write today on a basic premise of the criminal justice system that Trump and his minions have misrepresented in a malevolent way. I contrast those misrepresentations with the way DOJ Tax Division (and other DOJ components) act more responsibly.


Australia may be passing a tax on unrealized capital gains


The wisdom of Nate Silver


The full Tic Tac 2010 report.  Here is one summary.  Here is a Grok summary.  I will read it when back home


 Curtis Yarvin profile (New Yorker)


A new and different attempt to summarize Proust


 Jessica Crispin has reemerged with a book on Michael Douglas and the crisis of masculinity (NYT)


Wednesday, June 18, 2025

When We Are All Enemies of the State

Do security cameras deter thieves? 

She recalled that he’d once found a book of cloakroom tickets in the bin cupboard under the Rosemount Flats and started selling them for two pence each in the school playground, saying that David Bowie was going to give a concert at Alexandra Parade Primary School.
Andrew O'Hagan, Caledonian Road





Waging War in The Cloud: How Data Is The New Weapon Of Mass Destruction

Australia’s corporate regulator has launched an inquiry into the country’s stock exchange operator over “repeated and serious failures” that it says have undermined confidence in the public markets.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission on Monday said it would examine the Australian Securities Exchange’s governance and risk management practices after a series of mishaps including a botched upgrade to its clearing and settlements systems and a prolonged outage in the run-up to Christmas last year

Australia probes stock exchange over ‘serious failures’


Milky Way-Andromeda crash? There’s now only 50 percent chance of this epic event Interesting Engineering


Waging War in The Cloud: How Data Is The New Weapon Of Mass Destruction Madras Courier


Caffeine Has a Weird Effect on Your Brain While You’re Asleep Science Alert


Ed the zebra captured after running loose for more than a week in Tennessee The Guardian


More than 50 high-level Trump administration officials have links to groups behind the Heritage Foundation-backed plan, a DeSmog analysis found




Tuesday, June 17, 2025

The heresy of Americanism

 

What we had that day was our story. We didn’t have the other bit, the future, and we had no way of knowing what that would be like. Perhaps it would change our memory of all this, or perhaps it would draw from it, nobody knew. But I’m sure I felt the story of that hall and how we reached it would never vanish.
Andrew O'Hagan, Mayflies


RAAF salutes corporal for painting up mercenary multinational rent seekers

RAAF salutes corporal for painting up mercenary multinational rent seekers

Disunited, ambitious, without discipline, unfaithful, and bold among friends but cowardly among enemies. A RAAF corporal’s award-winning essay warns of strategic risks tied to outsourcing Australia’s military edge. 
(Maddison Scott/Defence)

A humble Royal Australian Air Force corporal has collected one of the Australian Defence Force’s most prestigious writing accolades for a short but very sharp piece on the dangers of outsourcing at the pointy end of the mission.

Corporal Matthew Thornton has won the Corporal Margaret Clarke Award for writing on military affairs for his submission, “Multinational Mercenaries: The dangers of private sector operational environment”, which warns of the risks associated with divesting operational capability to the private sector and the consequences that could follow.

Thornton’s essay analyses the effects of the military abrogating its core capabilities to the private sector rather than retaining them internally, and how this could translate in a real conflict scenario.

The piece, published in May on Defence’s Air/Space Blog, overtly and critically questions the reliance on private military contractors by comparing similar historical precedents and analysis, not least “a reality that mirrors history, as described in the teachings of Niccolò Machiavelli, the 16th-century political theorist.”

“Tell me if you’ve heard this one,” Thornton posits.

  • “An ADF unit finds itself facing a five-member understaffing issue;
  • It contracts civilian support to fill the gap;
  • Five members of the unit transition into those positions, privately hired to perform a military role for pay (e.g. mercenary (Merriam-Webster, n.d.)) and come to work wearing polo shirts;
  • The unit is now down 10 members, and the process begins again.

In particular, the RAAF finds itself most deeply becoming trapped in this dynamic, as Australia has modernised its fleet — acquiring advanced platforms — and suffered the same recruitment and retention problems during the late 2010s and early 2020s as other militaries,” Thornton wrote.

Ouch.

Here’s another burst of fresh citrus.

“It (the RAAF) has increasingly turned to private contractors to fill capability gaps. First, I would like to acknowledge the undeniable benefits to arrangements with these entities. They are, however, well outlined in other articles on the Forge (Brown, 2021). That being said, a reliance on corporate soldiers also comes with significant drawbacks.”

“Consider the role of defence contractors in air power. These organisations are not just suppliers of equipment; they increasingly provide maintenance, training, and even operational capabilities,” Thornton wrote.

“Take, for example, a program within RAAF to provide kinetic capability but exclusively operated by a multinational contractor, which includes proprietary software that requires company support to maintain and a ‘just-in-time’ logistics system that is managed exclusively by the contractor’s office.

“RAAF’s partnership with the contractor keeps costs down during peacetime, and during asymmetric operations such as strikes on ISIS, where the mission was to degrade and destroy an organisation (without breaking the bank). During wartime, however, it creates a dependency that erodes Australia’s sovereign control over critical Defence functions if it’s the contractor, not the user, that prioritises who gets supplies or support, and when they get them (Trevithick & Rogoway, 2023).”

The TLDR [or ‘too long, didn’t read’] version of that is that private contractors serve different masters than a sovereign force does and thus there is a different decision tree. And that’s before morality is involved.

“A reliance on military contractors creates political, strategic, and social vulnerabilities. In a hypothetical conflict scenario, private firms might prioritise shareholder interests or allegiance to their home nation over Australian national security,” Thornton wrote.

“Consider a situation where a contractor withdraws support due to financial or political considerations. The result could be catastrophic, leaving military assets grounded or operationally compromised. Additionally, contractors often operate under different accountability standards than national forces, raising ethical and security concerns.”

That rationale explains, quite lucidly, why firms like Huawei were excluded from critical infrastructure like the National Broadband Network and 5G mobile rollout.

Thornton argues that a nation’s ability to defend itself shouldn’t be “contingent on private interests,” adding that “Machiavelli’s warning” resonates on this issue: “A prince must lay solid foundations for his power, for otherwise he must necessarily be destroyed.”

Thornton argues that “in the context of air power, such foundations must include a robust and self-sufficient air force that can both collaborate and act independently of external actors if required.”

“Australia now stands at a crossroads. After years of budget cuts and personnel shortages, the RAAF is on the road to replenishment. Recruitment initiatives are gaining momentum, and technological advancements are making platforms more user-friendly,” Thornton wrote.

“This period presents an opportunity to reassert sovereign control over air power by reducing, not removing, the reliance on private contractors.”

There are four common-sense recommendations, but the first and most poignant one is to staunch the blood supply to leeching firms.

“By scaling back contracted workforces, there is an incentive for ADF members to remain in, or return to, enlistment. This has the potential to reduce the lucrative incentives for the same roles, minimising competition for personnel (these positions are ultimately funded by the Defence budget),” Thornton wrote.

That sounds like exactly the problem Defence’s contractor poaching moratorium is seeking to address.

As the references to Machiavelli denote, the thinking may not be all that new or novel, but Thornton’s approach is clear, compelling and concise. And he’s happy to credit the riff.

“Machiavelli’s scorn for mercenaries is well documented in his works. In The Prince, he describes them as “disunited, ambitious, without discipline, unfaithful, bold among friends, cowardly among enemies.” Though his critique was aimed at the condottieri of Renaissance Italy, the parallels to modern private military contractors are striking.

That’s the kinetic effect of striking, rather than the industrial or commercial one. It’s an SLA kinda thing.

READ MORE:

Anxious and confused: Australia, Russia and Indonesia’s flexible politics

Tyranny is never far from America’s or Australia’s front door

 

He knew nothing about policy and taxes or what makes a people, and now, God help him, he was like those kids who think their country is Google. ‘You’re just not going deep enough,’ Luke said. ‘Money has imploded. Religion has gone mad. Privacy is disappearing. The ice-cap is melting and children are starving to death. And you want to sing an old song about national togetherness.

A notorious $20,000 desk in parliament's storage is out of retirement. But who has it?

 

A person with an umbrella walks towards parliament house.

A custom $20,000 desk made for a former senior public servant is back in use in Parliament House. (ABC News: Matthew Roberts.)

In short:

A $20,000 sit-stand desk commissioned for the former deputy secretary of the parliament's department is back in use.

The Department of Parliamentary Services will only confirm that the desk will be used by "a staff member".

What's next?

A separate investigation into the department by the National Anti-Corruption Commission is continuing.

A $20,000 custom desk built for a senior public servant working in Parliament House that had been mothballed in storage is now out of retirement.

But it remains a mystery who is using the now-infamous desk.

Senator Jane Hume uncovered the sit-stand desk during questioning of the Department of Parliamentary Services, which was part of a larger $56,000 upgrade to the office of the then-deputy secretary of that department. 

Senator Hume had been told in responses to her questioning in Senate estimates that the desk was verbally commissioned in July 2021 at the request of then-secretary Rob Stefanic for his then-deputy Cate Saunders, who have both since ended their employment at parliament.

The brush box solid timber desk with brass fittings has "bespoke solution" cable runs concealed in its legs, and custom metal brackets fixing the timber to a height-adjustable frame, and has been described by the now-department boss as "beautiful".

Senator Hume made an example of the desk when criticising public service "waste" as part of the Coalition's back-to-office orders for public servants, labelling it an example of how bureaucrats did not "respect the Australian taxpayer".

"That $20,000 desk is now in storage. Having been wasteful, they now treat that waste as if it has no value. I bet the taxpayer who paid for it — any one of you — would disagree," Senator Hume said in March.

Jane Hume corridor doorstop

Liberal senator Jane Hume challenged the department over whether the desk had been value-for-money. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

But the Department of Parliamentary Services has since confirmed to Senator Hume that the desk is back in action.

It just won't say who is using it.

"The desk will be used by a staff member at Parliament House," a Department of Parliamentary Services spokesperson said in a statement.

Desk raised broader concerns about parliament department's culture

The nature of Mr Stefanic's and Ms Saunders' working relationship came under intense scrutiny last term, after Mr Stefanic told senators he had disclosed a conflict of interest with Ms Saunders to the head of the public service related to "perceptions of a close relationship" with his then-deputy.

Mr Stefanic last year flatly denied during Senate estimates questioning that he had ever been in a romantic relationship with Ms Saunders.

Rob Stefanic holds his hands together while giving evidence at senate estimates

Former DPS secretary Rob Stefanic was sacked by the parliament's presiding officers. (ABC News: David Sciasci)

Ms Saunders retired in 2023, and received a $315,000 exit package on her departure, while Mr Stefanic was sacked in December after the Senate president and House of Representatives speaker jointly determined they had lost confidence in him.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission is investigating the $315,000 exit package decision, and in October raided DPS offices in relation to an investigation.

Leather bins, cocktail cabinets part of $1.5m in storage

In a list handed to Senator Hume, the department also confirmed the value of 891 other pieces of furniture that remain in Parliament House storage.

Among them are 18 leather waste paper bins, each worth $130, a $2,700 TV studio desk, cocktail cabinets each worth $2,980, dozens of lounge chairs, coffee tables and more to the tune of $1.5 million.

But prior to its withdrawal from storage, the $20,000 desk appears to have been the single highest-value item stored in that facility.

Jaala Hinchcliffe, who replaced Mr Stefanic as DPS secretary, previously said it was a "beautiful" desk and the in-house team had "done amazing work on it" as a manufacturing and restoration opportunity.

Jaala Hinchcliffe giving evidence at Senate estimates.

DPS secretary Jaala Hinchcliffe has said the department is examining its consultation processes for furniture in parliament. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

The department also provided an update on a second $35,000 "prototype" sit-stand desk that further raised eyebrows among senators.

That desk was reportedly commissioned to investigate a replacement for the original desks used by parliamentarians, with a number of MPs reportedly making requests for sit-stand desks.

The department said in March the desk was being designed as a solution that would maintain the "dignity" of parliament offices, after Senator Hume and Senator Richard Colbeck questioned why existing sit-stand technologies could not be used.

But Ms Hinchcliffe openly told senators in March the department was questioning the decisions that led to the $35,000 prototype, and was working through issues in its capital works program.

In a response to Senator Colbeck, the department admitted that there were $1,000 "returns" available for the current desks that allowed "a smaller surface area" to be used as sit-stand, and that a small number of these were already in use in some parliament offices.

It said $23,464 had been spent on the design work for the custom-made sit-stand desk, and another $11,895 on its construction.

The department said in March no MPs had yet received versions of the desk, but said access would be granted to MPs and senators to "have a look" at the