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Monday, January 08, 2024

The charts that defined 2023 – from the rise of AI to empty offices

 THEY’RE ALWAYS IN THE LAST PLACE YOU LOOK:  Is a black hole stuck inside the sun?


New York Times – “The people who hid Curt Bloch, a German Jew, in the crawl space of a Dutch home gave him both food and the materials he needed to make a highly creative magazine now drawing attention. For more than two years, home for Curt Bloch was a tiny crawl space below the rafters of a modest brick home in Enschede, a Dutch city near the German border. 

The attic had a single small window. He shared it with two other adults. During that time, Bloch, a German Jew, survived in the Nazi-occupied Netherlands by relying on a network of people who gave him food and kept his secrets. In that respect, he was like at least 10,000 Jews who hid in Holland and managed to live by pretending not to exist. 

At least 104,000 others — many of whom also sought refuge, but were found — ended up being sent to their deaths. But Bloch’s experience was different because, in addition to sustenance and care, his helpers brought him pens, glue, newspapers and other printed materials that he used to produce a startling publication: his own weekly, satirical poetry magazine. From August 1943 until he was liberated in April 1945, Bloch produced 95 issues of Het Onderwater Cabaret, or The Underwater Cabaret. Each issue included original art, poetry and songs that often took aim at the Nazis and their Dutch collaborators. 

Bloch, writing in both German and Dutch, mocked Nazi propaganda, responded to war news and offered personal perspectives on wartime deprivations…”


We are kind of awesome! In these increasingly weird, anxious, foreboding times, what we make—some of the best journalism around—matters. 

A lot. And we don’t thank you nearly enough for tuning in to our coverage and for letting us claim your attention. But as awesome as we are, on occasion we’re reminded that other people are also kind of great. Which is why we at Bloomberg Businessweek practice an annual exercise in humility called The Jealousy List. Put simply, these are the stories so well executed by folks at other outlets that we wish we’d published them [link is to read free]. 

Thanks for the inferiority complex, frenemies! —The Editors ” [I am fortunate to have read and posted about many of these articles, and learned about others that I will read before year’s end to make room for so many more.]




2023 was the year when Barbenheimer became a cultural phenomenon, AI hit the mainstream and everyone over the age of 25 had to Google what ‘rizz’ meant. The tragic tale of the Titan submersible had news audiences gripped and global temperatures broke records – once again.
In the world of business, we teetered on the edge of a financial crisis as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse collapsed. Elon Musk captured headlines when he rebranded Twitter as X and we said goodbye (and hello again) to high-street favourite Wilko.
Here, Raconteur explores some of the trends and stories that helped shape yet another year of flux for business.

AI’s breakout year

It may have been the biggest technological breakthrough of 2022 but 2023 was the year that the generative AI race really took off. Tech titans Google, Meta and Microsoft all launched their own AI chatbots to compete with OpenAI’s market-leading ChatGPT. Despite numerous warnings of the dire risks the rapidly advancing technology poses for humanity, AI is here to stay. Businesses and their staff will have to continue to figure out how to work alongside it in 2024.


The return-to-office battle heats up

The year began with BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink declaring “remote working has not worked”. He was clearly not alone in this assumption, as 2023 saw companies pull out all the stops to try and get staff back to HQ. In a true sign of the times, even Zoom, the company that paved the way for the remote work revolution, called its workers back to the office.
Influencing this decision was the fact that many companies’ buildings were sitting half-empty. Office vacancy rates crept upwards in 2023, reaching levels not seen since the financial crisis. This led the likes of Meta and HSBC to downsize and it’s a trend that’s likely to continue in the year ahead.

Empty offices

Quarterly office vacancy rate (%)

UK
Central London offices
London docklands offices (including Canary Wharf)
20
15
10
5
0
2008
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
CoStar, 2023

UK’s four-day-week ‘breakthrough’

The results of the UK’s four-day-work week trial were released in February. Organisers described it as a “breakthrough moment” for the movement, as the majority of the 61 participating companies opted to continue with the new arrangement. Although it’s still rare for companies to offer it, there are signs that employers are warming to the ideaSome are predicting 2024 could be the year the four-day week hits the mainstream.

Four-day week grows, but remains a niche offering

Share of job postings that mention four-day week (%)

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Indeed, 2023

The back-to-work push

In March this year, UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt declared his spring statement the “back-to-work” budget, as the government sought to plug the gaping hole in the labour market by persuading the economically inactive back to work. Many companies duly obliged, tailoring their recruitment drives towards older workersparents and those with long-term illnesses, as they looked to fill record numbers of vacant positions. 
These actions appear to have worked as the number of vacancies tailed off in the second half of the year. However, the UK labour market still bears signs of sickness, with a record 2.6 million working-age people reporting economic inactivity because of ill health in 2023.

Workers leave labour market

Economic inactivity by reason (%)

Looking after
family / home
Student
Long-term
sick
Retired
Other
Temporarily
sick
Discouraged workers
ONS, 2023

Peak inflation passes

Business leaders have been keeping a keen eye on inflation after rates spiralled upwards in 2022. Thankfully, consumer price index inflation has cooled since its October 2022 peak of 11.1% and in November 2023 was down to 3.9%. Interest rate cuts from the Bank of England are likely to follow in 2024.
Wages, meanwhile, followed the opposite trajectory, rising faster than inflation in the second half of the year as workers demanded inflationary pay rises and companies were forced to compete for talent. This has gone some way to alleviating the cost-of-living crisis but, unfortunately for employees, wage growth appears to have passed its peak.

Pay rises outstrip inflation

Annual growth rate in average weekly earnings, seasonally adjusted, versus consumer price index inflation (%)

CPI
Regular pay
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ONS, 2023

Companies collapse at record rates

Several household names fell into administration this year as the number of corporate insolvencies reached levels not seen since the global financial crisis. The increased cost of debt, reduced consumer demand and the long-lasting economic impacts of the pandemic made 2023 a challenging year for businesses. 
Among the lengthy list of companies that called in the administrators were high-street staples Wilko, Paperchase, Hunter (of wellington boots fame) and Cath Kidston. But we have not seen the last of these brands yet – all have been given a second lease of life after they were acquired by The Range, Tesco, Authentic Brands and Next, respectively. 

Company collapses

Number of quarterly insolvencies in England and Wales

Total registered company insolvencies
Compulsory liquidations
Creditors' voluntary liquidations
Administrations
Company voluntary arrangements
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2008
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
The Insolvency Service, Companies House, 2023

Workplace misconduct scandals

A number of corporate scandals punctuated the year. Reports of a toxic culture, including allegations of sexual assault, caused the UK’s largest business group, the CBI, to dismiss its director-general in April; Tesco Chair John Allan was forced to step down in June after claims of inappropriate behaviour; and July saw McDonald’s admit it had “fallen short” in its handling of sexual harassment, racism and bullying claimsfrom staff. 
Even ITV faced accusations of bullying and discrimination following the news of This Morning presenter Phillip Schofield’s affair with a much younger colleague. These stories exposed the distressing cultures that have been tolerated at some of the UK’s biggest employers. These toxic behaviours need to be eradicated from the workplace in 2024.

Toxic workplaces

Workplace behaviours ranked most or second-most inappropriate by survey respondants (%)

Sexual harassment
63.2%
Bullying or intimidation
44.4%
Discrimination
30.2%
Drug use
29.5%
Drunkenness
14.5%
Favouritism
11.8%
Sex among colleagues
6.4%
Raconteur survey of 1,000 UK workers in partnership with Attest, 2023

Businesses get caught up in the culture wars

Culture wars dominated the discourse in 2023 and a number of businesses found themselves tangled up in these online conflicts. American beer-drinkers boycotted Bud Light in May after AB InBev dared to feature trans TikTok personality Dylan Mulvaney in its social media marketing; Mars was branded “woke” after swapping its M&M mascot’s high heels for flats; and NatWest’s CEO stepped down after the bank closed an account belonging to the right-wing politician and I’m a Celebrity contestant Nigel Farage.
These cautionary tales show that a growing group of consumers want businesses to stay out of politics – and they aren’t afraid of upsetting the applecart if they don’t.

Backlash against ‘woke’ businesses

“Should brands publicly express their views on the following topics, for example in a social media post or TV advert?” (%)

Yes
No
The environment
20.6%
60.8%
Human rights
24.8%
58.9%
Racism
31.3%
50.1%
Feminism
37.9%
38.3%
Sexual identity or preference
34%
42.8%
A war in another country
33.8%
38.2%
Gender identity 
31.2%
44.7%
Abortion
22.8%
49.5%
Religion
21.6%
56.6%
Who tvotfor in an election
20.6%
60.9%
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Excludes 'unsure/it depends' | Raconteur survey of 1,000 UK workers in partnership with Attest, 2023

ESG grows evermore important

The UN’s warning that the world is now on track to warm by nearly 3°C this century served as a stark reminder of businesses’ urgent need to address the climate crisis. A surprisingly productive COP should help the planet to start correcting its course but another positive can be found in the growing number of B Corporations.
The B Corp movement, which requires businesses to meet high social and environmental standards, now counts more than 7,880 companies globally among its ranks. And Raconteur was proud to be among the 2023 intake.

The B Corp movement continues to rise

Total number of certified B Corporations

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
B Lab, 2023

Brands became the new Hollywood stars

Barbie broke box office records and ended the year with nine Golden Globe awards. But it wasn’t just Mattel’s pink plastic doll that graced the silver screen this year: Nike’s Air Jordan trainers were the stars of Ben Affleck’s Air, the Hasbro-owned Transformers and Dungeons & Dragons both graced cinema screens and even PepsiCo’s ‘Flamin’ Hot’ Cheetos snack got the feature-length treatment. It meant 2023 was the year that brands really were the new Hollywood stars.

Brands take over the box office

Global box office takings ($)

Transformers:
Rise of
the Beasts
Hasbro
Dungeons
& Dragons:
Honor Among
Thieves
Hasbro
Gran
Turismo
Sony
Air
Nike
Barbie
Mattel
The Super
Mario Bros. 
Movie
Nintendo
BlackBerry
Blackberry
Box Office Mojo, 2023