Heavy rainfall associated with these storms will likely lead to renewed river, creek and stream rises

While nothing matches the bravery of Ukrainians, the journalists there also are risking their lives to tell the stories that the world needs to know.

A security specialist who hails from West Cork has predicated that Russia President Vladimir Putin will be assassinated by his own people

Where is Vladimir Putin? Russian leader's hideout 'lair' as experts predict assassination

As Russian Troops Invade, Ukrainian Museum Workers Rush To Protect Their Collections

"Even if cultural sites are unlikely to be direct targets of Russian aggression, administrators worry about the security of their collections if fighting escalates and enters urban areas. Some were concerned that Russian nationalists could attack institutions that put forward Ukrainian historical and cultural narratives." - The New York...

YOU DON’T NEED A WEATHERMAN TO SEE WHICH WAY THE WIND BLOWS: Germany OKs weapons for Ukraine in major shift on military aid.

Related: “Something is off with Putin.”

In Unflinching Speech, Biden Vows That Putin Will “Bear the Consequences” for War Vanity Fair

The Moral Danger of Declaring the Pandemic Over Too Soon Gregg Gonsalves, NYT. From last week, still germane.

Chechen general Magomed Tushayev, the president’s right-hand man, killed near Kiev. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine have assured that shortly after 8:30 p.m. they have “neutralized” the Chechen general, Magomed Tushayev. Apparently, he could have been killed near Kiev, in the area known as Hostome. Tushayev He was in charge of the 141 motorized regiment of the so-called Kadyrov guard: one of the most elite units in Chechnya and whose contingent would be made up of about 400 men. Magomed Tushayev, was known as one of the Lords of war and its loss is a severe blow to the Chechen contingent that was moved to Kiev to support the Russian army in the capture of the Ukrainian capital.”

What does that mean? It means people are sending it to me, but they’re not people I regard as eminently trustworthy — which doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be trusted, just that I don’t have a relationship of trust with them, or a track record to assess. The outlet is one I can’t assess for reliability. I tried to confirm it from other sources but found basically variations on the same story, in outlets that I also can’t assess for reliability. That doesn’t mean it isn’t true, it just means I can’t form a useful opinion.

All wartime info is to be questioned, of course, especially when it comes from the warring parties or their supporters or detractors. In this case, true or not, the salience of the story is that the Chechen occupation troops, because of their known brutality (which fact is not in question) were intended to terrify the Ukrainian population. That manifestly hasn’t happened, but this story is likely to reduce their potential for terrifying the population further: If one of the “lords of war” has been killed already, how tough are they?

Again, that doesn’t mean the story is true or false. It’s a secondary impact that may happen whether the story is true or not.

Just an illustration of how these things work, and how difficult it is to form a true picture of what’s going on from afar. For that matter, even the actual warring parties face many of these difficulties.

And you know, I just realized I’ve been warblogging again. I thought that was behind me. . . .

How Far Will Biden Go to Stop Putin? Franklin Foer, The Atlantic. Reads like a direct readout of today’s West Wing Brain.

Why the West may want Russia to invade Ukraine Al Mayadeen. From Beirut. The Azov Battalion as the Mujahideen of the steppes. Or as David Frum frames it, carefully erasing the neo-Nazis

Sean Penn on the Ground in Ukraine Filming Documentary About Russia’s Invasion Variety

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Russia’s new foreign policy, the Putin DoctrineSergey Karaganov, RT

‘Russia is against war’: Thousands rally in rare show of dissent Al Jazeera

What the West doesn’t understand about Russia or Ukraine Yahoo News

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Ukraine Crisis Kicks Off New Superpower Struggle Among U.S., Russia and China WSJ

Russia, Ukraine and the doomed 30-year quest for a post-Soviet order FT

‘Not One Inch Eastward:’ How the War in Ukraine Could Have Been Prevented Decades Ago Scheerpost

In Ukraine, ‘No One HearsThat There Is a Diplomatic Solution’ FAIR

Archdukes across Europe hiring extra security details Duffel Blog