The Sydney suburbs with COVID-19 clusters
NSW Health has released the locations of active coronavirus clusters which have infected more than 100 people.
I HOPE THIS IS TRUE, BUT I WOULDN’T TAKE ANY ACTION BASED ON IT: New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity.
The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.The head of the study, professor Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford theoretical epidemiologist, said she still supports the U.K.’s decision to shut down the country to suppress the virus even if her research winds up being proven correct. But she also doesn’t appear to be a big fan of the work done by the Imperial College team. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” she said.If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus. Theoretically, then, social restrictions could ease sooner than anticipated. What needs to be done now, Gupta said, is a whole lot of antibody testing to figure out who may have contracted the virus.
Before I’d rely on this to loosen anything, I’d want to see that lots of people had antibodies, and that those antibodies were reliably protective.
A prescient article from 2018: The Next Pandemic Will Be Arriving Shortly. "As a result, in 2018, it is impossible to reconcile the redirection of funds away from preparing for pandemics with these realities on the ground
Starting from a seed, a sunflower plant grows, flowers…and then wilts. I’ve always thought these kinds of videos were wonderful, but given recent events, they are hitting with an extra poignance. Or maybe hope in a strange sort of way? I don’t know what one is supposed to be feeling about anything these days.
In this other sunflower time lapse, you can more clearly see the little seed helmets worn by the tiny plants soon after sprouting. Cute!
Visualizing the History of Pandemics
We actually have two recipes for you, and links to find the ingredients. The first is one you can make with stuff you likely already have in your cabinets and under the sink, so it’s effective in emergency situations. The second recipe is more complex, but easy to make if you have the opportunity to do some shopping and planning ahead of time. Another note: a lot of these items are quickly going out of stock because of high demand. There’s a higher chance of finding them at your local drug store, but your first priority is to stay indoors…”
There’s no getting around it: The news is grim, and it’s going to be grim for a while. You can choose whatever metaphor you like; I prefer to describe this as the coronavirus bombing Pearl Harbor and leaving our medical Pacific Fleet in ruins. We never sought this fight and most of us were oblivious to the threat as it gathered. Now, after suffering our first shocking losses, we know we have no choice but to fight this lethal enemy. We don’t know how long this fight is going to last. We know we are certain to suffer casualties. But we have no choice but to fight this virus with everything we’ve got; unchecked coronavirus would not destroy America, but it would inflict unbearable losses and alter it irrevocably.
I would say to the House, as I said to those who have joined this government: ‘I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.’We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I can say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: It is victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.
A plan for final victory is already taking shape. The United States of America, and the rest of the world, are attacking this threat on five key fronts.
The War on Coronavirus Advances on Five Different Fronts.
We don’t want to add to the din of analysis, informed opinion, speculation, uninformed opinion, fake news … We focus on public policy issues to do with the epidemic. (For information and advice as sound and unbiassed as is available in such a dynamic situation it is hard to go past Norman Swan’s Coronacast covering news, research and FAQ’s on the virus.)
Policy choices: mitigate or suppress
A team of 32 researchers at the Imperial College London, modelling the possible effects of coronavirus on the UK and the USA, presents two fundamental paths for public policy: mitigation or suppression. Mitigation aims to slow but not necessarily stop the spread using approaches such as home isolation of suspect cases and social distancing of the elderly, while suppression uses stronger measures, with a view to reversing epidemic growth.
They model the effects of various policy interventions on demand for health services and deaths over time. They acknowledge the enormously disruptive consequences of suppression, which would probably have to be sustained for 18 months, but conclude
… that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
Flattening the curve: Australia’s progress
The graph below, constructed from daily WHO situation reports, shows confirmed coronavirus cases in Australia and, for comparison, South Korea – another prosperous country in this region which, in view of the nature of its northern border, is essentially an island. Its population – 50 million – is about twice ours.
Note that the scale is logarithmic: Australia’s gentle slope would look very scary on a linear scale. Note too that the WHO data is based on confirmed cases as provided by member countries, which is dependent on their testing regimes (influenced by the availability of test kits), and the trustworthiness of their government reporting (data for some countries is at Trumpian levels of incredulity.)
South Korea appears to have flattened the curve, for now at least. We will keep this graph updated so long as there is a flow of reliable data.
Are we doing enough to minimise the harm from coronavirus?
On Pearls and Irritations John Dwyer, immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine at UNSW, explains what more could be done to slow the spread of the virus: There is still a lot more that needs to be done to minimise harm in Australia from COVID-19. There site also has an explanation by medical specialists Kerry Breen and Kerry Goulston on possible reasons the Morrison Government is dragging its feet: their article An improved response to COVID-19 will not be achieved with the current approachlists five possible reasons.
Open Forum is one of the sites publishing an open letter to the Prime Minister, signed by thousands of medical practitioners, calling for stronger action on lockdown and social distancing and for preparation of the health system to deal with critically ill patients.
When it’s all over, how will daily life be different?
Writing in the Canberra Times – Our political institutions and lifestyles are about to be put to the test by coronavirus – John Warhurst speculates on how changes necessitated by the pandemic may alter our lives and institutions permanently. Our supposed commitment to egalitarianism is being put to the test; the winner-take-all Westminster system of government seems to be out of place; our federal system may have to adapt. “The biggest question is whether our previously hectic life will ever be the same again after lengthy self-isolation”.
Plagued by Trumpism
On the Project Syndicate website – Plagued by Trumpism– Joseph Stiglitz writes:
For 40 years, Republicans have been insisting that “government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.” But now that COVID-19, climate change, and other collective threats are bearing down on the US and the rest of the world, the bankruptcy of this nostrum has been laid bare.
It is hard to imagine that the world will emerge from this disruption with any serious policymaker suggesting that health care should be left to a US-style for-profit delivery system financed by a for-profit private insurance system.
We think we’ve got it tough
Spare a thought for refugees in detention – people with compromised immune systems living in crowded and unhygienic camps. Writing in Science Norway journalist Marte Dæhklen collates the perspectives of Professor Terje Andreas Eikemo and other Norwegian public health experts who had reported on the miserable conditions in the Greek refugee camps last year, well before the coronavirus emerged. Professor about the coronavirus: “I fear many children will die in refugee camps”.