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Sunday, May 19, 2019

The expert who predicted Trump, Brexit - and Scott Morrison


The political victory of Adolf Hitler in 1933 meant the personal defeat of Stefan Zweig. With fascism in the saddle, Zweig’s books were banned in Germany and Austria and often burned by fascist youth; he lost his house in Salzburg and with it much of his collection of rare literary and musical manuscripts and artifacts (he owned, among other notable items, Beethoven’s desk and Goethe’s pen); and his first marriage collapsed. Zweig was an internationalist by instinct and political philosophy—that is, a believer in the compatibility of all nations—but Hitler’s Germany put paid to that dream. On the attack throughout Europe, Germany, a nation to which, Zweig said, “good order had always seemed more important than liberty and justice,” had turned Stefan Zweig from a contented cosmopolitan into a woeful exile. “It is over,” Zweig wrote in his diary, “Europe finished. Our world destroyed. Now we are truly homeless.”
… Stefan Zweig, European Man by Joseph Epstein | Articles | First Things

Pollsters 95 per cent unsure how they got it wrong


Meanwhile, it turns out the man who allegedly attempted to stab one of Abbott's volunteers with a corkscrew on Friday night was Steven Economides, a KPMG tax partner.)
Via CBD


Peter FitzSimons

Peter FitzSimons



The expert who predicted Trump, Brexit - and Scott Morrison









The expert who predicted Trump, Brexit - and Scott Morrison

With polling and betting markets missing the mark, experts are increasingly turning to social media to judge voter sentiment on a larger scale.


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'Unhealthy culture' in Labor in NSW after two damaging election losses in two months




Time to stop polling and start listening: Why we got the election result so wrong







Time to stop polling and start listening: Why we got the election result so wrong

A leading social researcher admits she got it wrong. So did many others, including in the Coalition. What do we learn from it?











NSW Labor needs to be completely rebuilt


Alexandra Smith

Alexandra Smith