The model also predicts that recessions accelerate the decline in routine occupations—firms prefer to destroy routine jobs during a downturn, when the opportunity cost of restructuring is low. This acceleration can account for recent cyclical changes of the labor market: routine job losses are concentrated in recessions and the ensuing recoveries are jobless.
That is from Miguel Morin, a recent Columbia Ph.d. The entire paper is of interest. And here is a relevant blog post by Scott Sumner on “near recessions.”
Toward an insider trading theory of foreign policy? (Putin hoards gold)