Pundits PENTAGON SCRAPS INFORMATION MARKET

In proposing a virtual market to help predict contingencies in the Middle East and elsewhere, PAM set out to achieve what years of pseudo-reform of U.S. military and intelligence agencies had failed even to attempt -- to bypass the hierarchical bureaucracy that has led to numerous deadly intelligence failures.
PAM was based on the insight that markets, driven by economic actors with powerful incentives to guess correctly, often know better than a handful of professional prognosticators. This point has been well illustrated by the web-based Iowa Political Stock Market, a virtual market that has consistently predicted election outcomes more accurately than pollsters.
· Intelligence Failure [Independent.]
· Decision Markets [EntrepreneurialEconomics]